Guam Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Guam, which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, has been relatively modest in recent years. As of the early 2020s, Guam’s RNI is estimated to be around 0.6% per year, reflecting a gradually slowing population growth due to declining birth rates and a stable or slightly increasing death rate. Compared to neighboring countries, Guam’s RNI is lower than that of the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands, where higher fertility rates contribute to RNIs of approximately 1.5% and 1.7% respectively. However, Guam’s RNI is higher than that of Japan, which has a negative RNI due to an aging population and low birth rates, and slightly higher than Palau, which also faces low fertility and even negative growth in some years. These differences highlight how Guam’s demographic trends are shaped by both its unique status as a U.S. territory and broader regional patterns of declining fertility in the Pacific.

Data from US Census International Database