The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Morocco, which measures the difference between birth and death rates excluding migration, has been gradually declining over recent decades, reflecting broader demographic transitions in North Africa. As of the early 2020s, Morocco’s RNI is approximately 1.1% per year, indicating moderate population growth. This rate is slightly lower than that of its eastern neighbor Algeria, which has an RNI of around 1.4%, and notably higher than Spain to the north, where the RNI is negative due to low birth rates and an aging population. Compared to Mauritania to the south, which has a higher RNI of about 2.5%, Morocco’s population growth is more subdued, reflecting differences in economic development, urbanization, and access to family planning. Overall, Morocco’s RNI places it in an intermediate position in the region, with growth rates declining as the country continues to urbanize and fertility rates fall.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 2.516 | 21,948,629 |
| 1990 | 2.038 | 24,517,333 |
| 1995 | 1.784 | 26,774,155 |
| 2000 | 1.604 | 28,491,421 |
| 2005 | 1.563 | 30,283,203 |
| 2010 | 1.459 | 32,266,907 |
| 2015 | 1.32 | 34,207,410 |
| 2020 | 1.145 | 36,055,311 |
| 2024 | 1.016 | 37,387,585 |
| 2025 | 0.984 | 37,698,780 |
| 2026 | 0.957 | 38,001,962 |
| 2030 | 0.852 | 39,140,596 |
| 2035 | 0.739 | 40,402,356 |
| 2040 | 0.639 | 41,495,037 |
| 2045 | 0.536 | 42,409,327 |
| 2050 | 0.424 | 43,116,499 |
| 2055 | 0.306 | 43,586,701 |
| 2060 | 0.197 | 43,814,062 |
| 2065 | 0.101 | 43,818,932 |
| 2070 | 0.015 | 43,625,091 |
| 2075 | -0.062 | 43,253,593 |
| 2080 | -0.136 | 42,720,059 |
| 2085 | -0.207 | 42,036,303 |
| 2090 | -0.28 | 41,209,068 |
| 2095 | -0.358 | 40,240,088 |
| 2100 | -0.44 | 39,128,890 |
Data from US Census International Database