North Macedonia’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has been low and even negative in recent years, reflecting broader demographic trends in Southeastern Europe. As of the early 2020s, North Macedonia’s RNI hovers near zero or slightly negative, indicating a stagnating or slightly declining population due to low birth rates and relatively high death rates. This pattern is similar to neighboring Bulgaria and Serbia, both of which have some of the lowest RNIs in Europe, experiencing significant population decline. In contrast, Albania, another neighbor, maintains a slightly positive RNI, though its growth has slowed compared to the past, while Greece also faces negative natural growth. Overall, North Macedonia’s demographic situation mirrors much of the region, characterized by aging populations, low fertility, and minimal or negative natural population growth.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 0.809 | 1,954,048 |
| 2000 | 0.604 | 2,017,370 |
| 2005 | 0.198 | 2,057,226 |
| 2010 | 0.249 | 2,079,955 |
| 2015 | 0.124 | 2,105,107 |
| 2020 | 0.096 | 2,125,463 |
| 2024 | 0.059 | 2,135,622 |
| 2025 | 0.045 | 2,137,556 |
| 2026 | 0.03 | 2,139,186 |
| 2030 | -0.045 | 2,141,940 |
| 2035 | -0.142 | 2,135,941 |
| 2040 | -0.216 | 2,120,581 |
| 2045 | -0.259 | 2,099,476 |
| 2050 | -0.297 | 2,074,629 |
| 2055 | -0.365 | 2,044,727 |
| 2060 | -0.442 | 2,008,015 |
| 2065 | -0.516 | 1,964,417 |
| 2070 | -0.569 | 1,915,606 |
| 2075 | -0.596 | 1,864,387 |
| 2080 | -0.598 | 1,813,388 |
| 2085 | -0.585 | 1,764,371 |
| 2090 | -0.558 | 1,718,571 |
| 2095 | -0.525 | 1,676,736 |
| 2100 | -0.498 | 1,638,458 |
Data from US Census International Database