Marshall Islands Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI) in the Marshall Islands is relatively high compared to many developed countries, but it is moderate within its regional context. As of recent estimates, the Marshall Islands has an RNI of approximately 1.5% per year, reflecting a birth rate that significantly exceeds the death rate. When compared to neighboring countries, such as Kiribati and the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands’ RNI is similar—Kiribati’s RNI is slightly higher, around 1.7%, while the Federated States of Micronesia has an RNI closer to 1.3%. In contrast, more developed Pacific neighbors like Guam or New Caledonia have much lower RNIs, often below 1%. The similarities among the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Micronesia stem from comparable fertility rates and youthful population structures, but slight differences arise due to variations in health care, emigration rates, and socio-economic conditions. Overall, the Marshall Islands’ population growth through natural increase is moderate for the Pacific region, reflecting both regional trends and unique local factors.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19903.35845,828
19952.9949,639
20002.96153,066
20052.8659,062
20102.53365,768
20152.12972,028
20201.86277,741
20241.6982,011
20251.64483,037
20261.61784,049
20301.49988,030
20351.33992,725
20401.16496,929
20450.981100,480
20500.821103,319
20550.68105,490
20600.544107,001
20650.397107,790
20700.243107,774
20750.095106,936
2080-0.04105,337
2085-0.164103,064
2090-0.293100,168
2095-0.43696,638
2100-0.58392,479

Data from US Census International Database