French Polynesia Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI) in French Polynesia, which measures the difference between birth and death rates, has been moderate in recent years. As of the early 2020s, French Polynesia’s RNI hovers around 0.8% per year, reflecting a gradually declining birth rate and relatively stable death rate. When compared to neighboring Pacific island countries, such as Samoa and Tonga, French Polynesia’s RNI is somewhat lower—Samoa and Tonga both report RNIs closer to 1.2%–1.5%, driven by higher fertility rates and younger populations. In contrast, nearby developed territories like New Caledonia or even Australia have even lower RNIs, in some cases approaching zero or negative growth, due to aging populations and lower birth rates. Thus, French Polynesia’s RNI situates it between the higher-growth Pacific island nations and the slower-growing, more developed regions in Oceania.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19852.517175,409
19902.297199,524
19951.766216,845
20001.662235,866
20051.27253,764
20101.167268,808
20151.01282,554
20200.846294,891
20240.72303,540
20250.686305,507
20260.655307,394
20300.528314,150
20350.39320,833
20400.267325,697
20450.147328,816
20500.034330,218
2055-0.072329,897
2060-0.161327,966
2065-0.236324,703
2070-0.304320,339
2075-0.369314,999
2080-0.428308,777
2085-0.474301,867
2090-0.493294,628
2095-0.495287,422
2100-0.497280,382

Data from US Census International Database