Malawi Rate of Natural Increase

Malawi’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—remains among the highest in the world, estimated at around 2.7% per year as of 2023. This high RNI reflects Malawi’s youthful population, high fertility rates, and a steady decline in mortality rates. When compared to its neighbors, Malawi’s RNI is similar to Mozambique and Tanzania, both of which also experience high fertility and declining mortality, resulting in RNIs above 2.5%. In contrast, Zambia, to the west, has a slightly lower RNI, though still high by global standards, while Zimbabwe’s RNI is notably lower, largely due to lower fertility rates and the lingering effects of health challenges such as HIV/AIDS. Despite regional similarities in demographic trends, Malawi’s RNI underscores the country’s rapid population growth, which poses both opportunities and challenges for development relative to its neighbors.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19803.1266,132,597
19853.1656,969,603
19903.1578,934,239
19953.3159,458,378
20003.37310,921,949
20053.42412,764,414
20103.26815,016,095
20152.81617,398,794
20202.44819,822,929
20242.21721,763,309
20252.15622,244,356
20262.11822,724,718
20301.93124,645,259
20351.74227,022,619
20401.57829,367,856
20451.42131,661,017
20501.27833,877,000
20551.14135,988,062
20601.00837,972,560
20650.87839,804,696
20700.7541,458,601
20750.62342,906,107
20800.49444,119,689
20850.36545,076,697
20900.24145,763,394
20950.12246,177,966
21000.01546,333,448

Data from US Census International Database