Malawi’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—remains among the highest in the world, estimated at around 2.7% per year as of 2023. This high RNI reflects Malawi’s youthful population, high fertility rates, and a steady decline in mortality rates. When compared to its neighbors, Malawi’s RNI is similar to Mozambique and Tanzania, both of which also experience high fertility and declining mortality, resulting in RNIs above 2.5%. In contrast, Zambia, to the west, has a slightly lower RNI, though still high by global standards, while Zimbabwe’s RNI is notably lower, largely due to lower fertility rates and the lingering effects of health challenges such as HIV/AIDS. Despite regional similarities in demographic trends, Malawi’s RNI underscores the country’s rapid population growth, which poses both opportunities and challenges for development relative to its neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 3.126 | 6,132,597 |
| 1985 | 3.165 | 6,969,603 |
| 1990 | 3.157 | 8,934,239 |
| 1995 | 3.315 | 9,458,378 |
| 2000 | 3.373 | 10,921,949 |
| 2005 | 3.424 | 12,764,414 |
| 2010 | 3.268 | 15,016,095 |
| 2015 | 2.816 | 17,398,794 |
| 2020 | 2.448 | 19,822,929 |
| 2024 | 2.217 | 21,763,309 |
| 2025 | 2.156 | 22,244,356 |
| 2026 | 2.118 | 22,724,718 |
| 2030 | 1.931 | 24,645,259 |
| 2035 | 1.742 | 27,022,619 |
| 2040 | 1.578 | 29,367,856 |
| 2045 | 1.421 | 31,661,017 |
| 2050 | 1.278 | 33,877,000 |
| 2055 | 1.141 | 35,988,062 |
| 2060 | 1.008 | 37,972,560 |
| 2065 | 0.878 | 39,804,696 |
| 2070 | 0.75 | 41,458,601 |
| 2075 | 0.623 | 42,906,107 |
| 2080 | 0.494 | 44,119,689 |
| 2085 | 0.365 | 45,076,697 |
| 2090 | 0.241 | 45,763,394 |
| 2095 | 0.122 | 46,177,966 |
| 2100 | 0.015 | 46,333,448 |
Data from US Census International Database