Jamaica’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been steadily declining in recent decades, reflecting broader demographic trends in the Caribbean. As of 2023, Jamaica’s RNI is approximately 0.3% per year, indicating slow population growth. This rate is lower than that of Haiti, its closest neighbor, where the RNI is around 1.3%, driven by higher birth rates and a younger population. Conversely, Jamaica’s RNI is higher than that of Cuba, which has a near-zero or even negative RNI due to very low birth rates and an aging population. Compared to the Dominican Republic, which has an RNI of about 1.0%, Jamaica’s natural increase is also slower. These differences highlight Jamaica’s transition toward lower fertility and slower population growth, a trend shared with many other Caribbean nations but at varying stages and rates.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 2.04 | 2,358,892 |
| 1990 | 1.948 | 2,471,217 |
| 1995 | 1.847 | 2,645,003 |
| 2000 | 1.604 | 2,810,680 |
| 2005 | 1.337 | 2,853,053 |
| 2010 | 1.095 | 2,838,638 |
| 2015 | 0.923 | 2,815,763 |
| 2020 | 0.873 | 2,815,048 |
| 2024 | 0.815 | 2,823,713 |
| 2025 | 0.797 | 2,826,742 |
| 2026 | 0.779 | 2,830,053 |
| 2030 | 0.694 | 2,845,660 |
| 2035 | 0.581 | 2,869,074 |
| 2040 | 0.473 | 2,896,357 |
| 2045 | 0.385 | 2,929,345 |
| 2050 | 0.338 | 2,972,457 |
| 2055 | 0.294 | 3,019,597 |
| 2060 | 0.256 | 3,061,362 |
| 2065 | 0.218 | 3,097,856 |
| 2070 | 0.175 | 3,128,444 |
| 2075 | 0.127 | 3,152,136 |
| 2080 | 0.073 | 3,167,908 |
| 2085 | 0.017 | 3,175,011 |
| 2090 | -0.04 | 3,173,163 |
| 2095 | -0.092 | 3,162,648 |
| 2100 | -0.142 | 3,144,114 |
Data from US Census International Database