Sri Lanka’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has steadily declined over recent decades, reflecting its progress in health care and family planning. As of 2023, Sri Lanka’s RNI is approximately 0.3% per year, one of the lowest in South Asia. This is in stark contrast to neighboring India, which has an RNI of about 0.8%, and even more so to Bangladesh, where the RNI is around 1%. In comparison, the Maldives has a slightly higher RNI at about 1.3%. Sri Lanka’s low RNI is due to both a relatively low birth rate and a declining death rate, resulting in slower population growth. This demographic trend aligns Sri Lanka more closely with rapidly aging societies than with its neighboring countries, which still experience higher rates of natural population increase.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 1.861 | 15,847,023 |
| 1990 | 1.445 | 16,861,677 |
| 1995 | 1.347 | 17,941,066 |
| 2000 | 1.251 | 19,041,167 |
| 2005 | 1.28 | 20,102,989 |
| 2010 | 1.186 | 21,083,218 |
| 2015 | 0.979 | 22,052,143 |
| 2020 | 0.785 | 22,895,756 |
| 2024 | 0.682 | 23,460,488 |
| 2025 | 0.659 | 23,590,176 |
| 2026 | 0.639 | 23,715,920 |
| 2030 | 0.572 | 24,186,861 |
| 2035 | 0.493 | 24,706,443 |
| 2040 | 0.395 | 25,134,659 |
| 2045 | 0.275 | 25,437,022 |
| 2050 | 0.16 | 25,595,389 |
| 2055 | 0.075 | 25,627,216 |
| 2060 | 0.009 | 25,562,860 |
| 2065 | -0.05 | 25,420,872 |
| 2070 | -0.108 | 25,205,349 |
| 2075 | -0.166 | 24,916,549 |
| 2080 | -0.219 | 24,560,841 |
| 2085 | -0.26 | 24,152,092 |
| 2090 | -0.306 | 23,697,772 |
| 2095 | -0.359 | 23,191,471 |
| 2100 | -0.414 | 22,631,666 |
Data from US Census International Database