Spain’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—has been negative in recent years, meaning that deaths outnumber births and the population would decline without immigration. As of 2023, Spain’s RNI is around -2 per 1,000 people, reflecting low fertility rates and an aging population. This trend is similar to its neighbor Portugal, which also has a negative RNI and faces significant demographic aging. In contrast, France, another neighbor, maintains a slightly positive RNI due to higher birth rates, supported by more robust family policies and a younger population structure. Meanwhile, Italy, like Spain, experiences a negative RNI, with both countries among those with the lowest fertility rates in Europe. Thus, while Spain shares demographic challenges with Portugal and Italy, it contrasts with France, which has managed to sustain a modest natural population growth.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 0.043 | 39,764,708 |
| 2000 | 0.095 | 40,589,004 |
| 2005 | 0.181 | 43,704,367 |
| 2010 | 0.225 | 46,412,492 |
| 2015 | -0.005 | 46,117,462 |
| 2020 | -0.327 | 47,041,387 |
| 2024 | -0.29 | 47,280,433 |
| 2025 | -0.282 | 47,336,448 |
| 2026 | -0.274 | 47,390,594 |
| 2030 | -0.238 | 47,591,826 |
| 2035 | -0.207 | 47,798,695 |
| 2040 | -0.213 | 47,905,339 |
| 2045 | -0.29 | 47,776,006 |
| 2050 | -0.426 | 47,250,516 |
| 2055 | -0.595 | 46,298,411 |
| 2060 | -0.7 | 45,055,029 |
| 2065 | -0.725 | 43,710,652 |
| 2070 | -0.681 | 42,436,011 |
| 2075 | -0.598 | 41,343,000 |
| 2080 | -0.521 | 40,452,990 |
| 2085 | -0.485 | 39,702,845 |
| 2090 | -0.492 | 38,995,429 |
| 2095 | -0.503 | 38,281,997 |
| 2100 | -0.499 | 37,578,501 |
Data from US Census International Database