Hong Kong Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—in Hong Kong is notably low and has even turned negative in recent years. Hong Kong's RNI is among the lowest in the region, with a declining birth rate and an aging population contributing to this trend. In 2023, Hong Kong recorded more deaths than births, resulting in a negative RNI. In contrast, neighboring countries and regions show varying patterns: Mainland China, while also experiencing a declining RNI and even entering negative territory in recent years, still has a slightly higher birth rate than Hong Kong. Meanwhile, Macau, another Special Administrative Region, mirrors Hong Kong's low RNI due to similar demographic challenges. In comparison, countries like Singapore and South Korea also face low or negative RNIs, reflecting broader East Asian demographic trends, while others in Southeast Asia, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, continue to exhibit positive RNIs due to higher birth rates and younger populations. Thus, Hong Kong’s RNI is emblematic of the demographic shifts seen in developed East Asian economies, but it is particularly acute due to its extremely low fertility rate and rapidly aging society.

Data from US Census International Database