Namibia’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate, typically expressed as a percentage—is moderate compared to its neighbors in Southern Africa. As of recent estimates, Namibia’s RNI is around 1.6% per year, reflecting a relatively high birth rate but also a significant impact from HIV/AIDS on mortality. In comparison, neighboring Botswana has a slightly lower RNI, around 1.4%, due to similar health challenges and declining fertility rates. Angola, to the north, has a much higher RNI, exceeding 3%, driven by higher fertility and a younger population, despite health concerns. South Africa, to the south, has one of the lowest RNIs in the region, at about 1.0%, due to lower fertility rates and a more advanced demographic transition. Thus, Namibia’s RNI sits between the higher rates of Angola and the lower rates of Botswana and South Africa, reflecting its unique demographic and health profile within the region.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 3.163 | 1,058,021 |
| 1985 | 2.905 | 1,199,651 |
| 1990 | 2.8 | 1,458,648 |
| 1995 | 2.445 | 1,661,348 |
| 2000 | 2.199 | 1,877,964 |
| 2005 | 1.978 | 2,043,266 |
| 2010 | 2.108 | 2,182,968 |
| 2015 | 2.008 | 2,388,262 |
| 2020 | 1.834 | 2,629,632 |
| 2024 | 1.789 | 2,827,573 |
| 2025 | 1.77 | 2,878,336 |
| 2026 | 1.753 | 2,929,485 |
| 2030 | 1.665 | 3,137,073 |
| 2035 | 1.537 | 3,398,921 |
| 2040 | 1.399 | 3,658,088 |
| 2045 | 1.264 | 3,910,077 |
| 2050 | 1.134 | 4,151,610 |
| 2055 | 1.023 | 4,381,595 |
| 2060 | 0.915 | 4,599,148 |
| 2065 | 0.806 | 4,801,361 |
| 2070 | 0.697 | 4,985,145 |
| 2075 | 0.588 | 5,147,778 |
| 2080 | 0.482 | 5,287,342 |
| 2085 | 0.382 | 5,402,712 |
| 2090 | 0.285 | 5,493,317 |
| 2095 | 0.191 | 5,558,879 |
| 2100 | 0.101 | 5,599,453 |
Data from US Census International Database