Bulgaria has one of the lowest rates of natural increase (RNI) in the world, with a negative RNI reflecting more deaths than births each year. As of recent data, Bulgaria’s RNI is around -0.7% per year, indicating a shrinking population due to low birth rates and high mortality rates. Compared to its neighbors, Bulgaria's demographic decline is particularly stark: Romania and Serbia also experience negative RNIs, but their rates are slightly less severe. In contrast, Turkey, which borders Bulgaria to the southeast, maintains a positive RNI due to higher birth rates and a younger population. Greece, to the south, shares a similar demographic challenge with a negative RNI, though it is not as pronounced as Bulgaria’s. Overall, Bulgaria stands out in the region for the rapid pace of its natural population decrease, driven by aging, emigration, and persistently low fertility rates.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | -0.521 | 8,284,001 |
| 2000 | -0.507 | 7,908,665 |
| 2005 | -0.554 | 7,611,111 |
| 2010 | -0.467 | 7,391,080 |
| 2015 | -0.554 | 7,186,710 |
| 2020 | -0.638 | 6,965,462 |
| 2024 | -0.632 | 6,782,659 |
| 2025 | -0.63 | 6,737,997 |
| 2026 | -0.629 | 6,693,714 |
| 2030 | -0.618 | 6,520,697 |
| 2035 | -0.596 | 6,315,986 |
| 2040 | -0.587 | 6,122,867 |
| 2045 | -0.608 | 5,933,661 |
| 2050 | -0.646 | 5,740,967 |
| 2055 | -0.705 | 5,540,751 |
| 2060 | -0.756 | 5,332,226 |
| 2065 | -0.783 | 5,120,923 |
| 2070 | -0.785 | 4,914,052 |
| 2075 | -0.758 | 4,718,061 |
| 2080 | -0.702 | 4,538,776 |
| 2085 | -0.636 | 4,379,895 |
| 2090 | -0.582 | 4,239,433 |
| 2095 | -0.562 | 4,111,018 |
| 2100 | -0.577 | 3,986,363 |
Data from US Census International Database