The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Mongolia, which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, has remained relatively moderate compared to its neighbors. As of recent years, Mongolia’s RNI is around 1.5% per year, reflecting a youthful population and steady birth rates. In contrast, China, Mongolia’s southern neighbor, has experienced a significant decline in its RNI, now close to zero or even negative, due to low birth rates and an aging population. Russia, to the north, has also faced low or negative RNI in recent years, primarily because of higher mortality rates and declining fertility. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian neighbors generally have higher RNIs than Mongolia, driven by higher fertility rates. Thus, while Mongolia’s RNI is higher than those of China and Russia, it is lower than in some Central Asian countries, placing it in a middle position in the region’s demographic trends.
Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
---|---|---|
1990 | 2.705 | 2,121,375 |
1995 | 1.848 | 2,306,417 |
2000 | 1.311 | 2,460,815 |
2005 | 1.196 | 2,602,416 |
2010 | 1.655 | 2,783,419 |
2015 | 1.388 | 2,992,282 |
2020 | 1.055 | 3,168,648 |
2024 | 0.853 | 3,281,676 |
2025 | 0.799 | 3,306,373 |
2026 | 0.752 | 3,329,593 |
2030 | 0.617 | 3,411,431 |
2035 | 0.544 | 3,497,963 |
2040 | 0.502 | 3,578,101 |
2045 | 0.415 | 3,649,504 |
2050 | 0.261 | 3,699,569 |
2055 | 0.105 | 3,720,545 |
2060 | -0.015 | 3,715,669 |
2065 | -0.093 | 3,692,597 |
2070 | -0.147 | 3,658,000 |
2075 | -0.203 | 3,613,828 |
2080 | -0.265 | 3,559,263 |
2085 | -0.31 | 3,495,754 |
2090 | -0.335 | 3,427,226 |
2095 | -0.357 | 3,356,127 |
2100 | -0.405 | 3,280,587 |
Data from US Census International Database