Mongolia Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Mongolia, which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, has remained relatively moderate compared to its neighbors. As of recent years, Mongolia’s RNI is around 1.5% per year, reflecting a youthful population and steady birth rates. In contrast, China, Mongolia’s southern neighbor, has experienced a significant decline in its RNI, now close to zero or even negative, due to low birth rates and an aging population. Russia, to the north, has also faced low or negative RNI in recent years, primarily because of higher mortality rates and declining fertility. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian neighbors generally have higher RNIs than Mongolia, driven by higher fertility rates. Thus, while Mongolia’s RNI is higher than those of China and Russia, it is lower than in some Central Asian countries, placing it in a middle position in the region’s demographic trends.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19902.7052,121,375
19951.8482,306,417
20001.3112,460,815
20051.1962,602,416
20101.6552,783,419
20151.3882,992,282
20201.0553,168,648
20240.8533,281,676
20250.7993,306,373
20260.7523,329,593
20300.6173,411,431
20350.5443,497,963
20400.5023,578,101
20450.4153,649,504
20500.2613,699,569
20550.1053,720,545
2060-0.0153,715,669
2065-0.0933,692,597
2070-0.1473,658,000
2075-0.2033,613,828
2080-0.2653,559,263
2085-0.313,495,754
2090-0.3353,427,226
2095-0.3573,356,127
2100-0.4053,280,587

Data from US Census International Database