Sweden Rate of Natural Increase

Sweden’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been modest in recent years, reflecting broader demographic trends in Northern Europe. As of the early 2020s, Sweden’s RNI hovers near zero or is slightly negative, indicating a very slow natural population growth or even a slight decline without considering migration. This pattern is similar to its neighbors, such as Finland and Denmark, which also experience low or negative RNIs due to aging populations and low fertility rates. Norway, while also facing low fertility, has a slightly higher RNI than Sweden, partly due to a marginally younger population and higher birth rates. In contrast, Sweden’s relatively high level of immigration has historically offset its low RNI, contributing to overall population growth, a trend also seen to some extent in Norway but less so in Finland and Denmark. Thus, while all these countries share the challenge of low natural increase, Sweden's demographic dynamics are somewhat buoyed by migration compared to its immediate neighbors.

Data from US Census International Database