Lithuania’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has been negative for several years, reflecting a declining population due to low birth rates and relatively high death rates. As of the early 2020s, Lithuania’s RNI hovers around -4 to -5 per 1,000 population annually, indicating more deaths than births. This trend is similar to neighboring Latvia, which also experiences a negative RNI, though typically at a slightly less negative rate. In contrast, Poland, another neighbor, has a near-zero or slightly negative RNI, signaling a more stable demographic situation, though still not enough to ensure population growth without migration. Meanwhile, Belarus’s RNI is closer to zero or marginally positive, due to slightly higher birth rates and lower death rates compared to Lithuania. Overall, Lithuania’s RNI is among the lowest in the region, highlighting significant demographic challenges compared to its neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 0.465 | 3,683,732 |
| 1995 | -0.118 | 3,509,711 |
| 2000 | -0.136 | 3,489,407 |
| 2005 | -0.43 | 3,326,633 |
| 2010 | -0.371 | 3,088,773 |
| 2015 | -0.418 | 2,884,632 |
| 2020 | -0.54 | 2,739,816 |
| 2024 | -0.63 | 2,628,186 |
| 2025 | -0.651 | 2,600,838 |
| 2026 | -0.671 | 2,573,717 |
| 2030 | -0.727 | 2,468,224 |
| 2035 | -0.746 | 2,346,636 |
| 2040 | -0.77 | 2,238,244 |
| 2045 | -0.799 | 2,140,115 |
| 2050 | -0.832 | 2,050,440 |
| 2055 | -0.798 | 1,967,978 |
| 2060 | -0.743 | 1,893,639 |
| 2065 | -0.682 | 1,827,187 |
| 2070 | -0.63 | 1,768,357 |
| 2075 | -0.614 | 1,714,381 |
| 2080 | -0.577 | 1,663,815 |
| 2085 | -0.516 | 1,618,763 |
| 2090 | -0.477 | 1,579,287 |
| 2095 | -0.471 | 1,542,581 |
| 2100 | -0.498 | 1,505,767 |
Data from US Census International Database