Croatia’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been negative for several years, reflecting a declining population due to low birth rates and relatively high death rates. As of recent data, Croatia’s RNI is around -5 per 1,000 people, indicating more deaths than births annually. This trend is similar to neighboring countries such as Hungary and Serbia, which also experience negative RNIs due to aging populations and emigration. However, Slovenia’s RNI, while also low, is slightly less negative, and Bosnia and Herzegovina faces a comparable or even steeper population decline. In contrast, Montenegro’s RNI is closer to zero, occasionally showing slight positive growth, making it an outlier in the region. Overall, Croatia and most of its neighbors are grappling with natural population decrease, a common demographic challenge in much of Eastern and Southeastern Europe.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | -0.119 | 4,480,936 |
| 2000 | -0.148 | 4,390,263 |
| 2005 | -0.209 | 4,441,957 |
| 2010 | -0.197 | 4,417,475 |
| 2015 | -0.282 | 4,335,285 |
| 2020 | -0.394 | 4,229,585 |
| 2024 | -0.452 | 4,150,116 |
| 2025 | -0.467 | 4,131,508 |
| 2026 | -0.478 | 4,112,955 |
| 2030 | -0.494 | 4,036,866 |
| 2035 | -0.533 | 3,939,174 |
| 2040 | -0.571 | 3,836,284 |
| 2045 | -0.597 | 3,730,291 |
| 2050 | -0.612 | 3,623,602 |
| 2055 | -0.63 | 3,516,963 |
| 2060 | -0.644 | 3,411,254 |
| 2065 | -0.663 | 3,306,174 |
| 2070 | -0.682 | 3,201,220 |
| 2075 | -0.685 | 3,098,044 |
| 2080 | -0.669 | 2,999,379 |
| 2085 | -0.65 | 2,906,400 |
| 2090 | -0.62 | 2,820,028 |
| 2095 | -0.598 | 2,740,066 |
| 2100 | -0.58 | 2,665,008 |
Data from US Census International Database