Papua New Guinea Rate of Natural Increase

Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a relatively high rate of natural increase (RNI) in population growth, estimated at around 1.9% to 2.0% per year as of the early 2020s. This RNI is driven by a high birth rate and a moderate but declining death rate, resulting in a steadily growing population. When compared to its closest neighbors, PNG’s RNI is higher than that of Australia and New Zealand, both of which have much lower rates (typically below 1%) due to lower birth rates and aging populations. In contrast, PNG’s RNI is similar to or slightly higher than some Pacific island nations like Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, which also experience youthful populations and high fertility rates. However, PNG’s RNI is lower than that of Timor-Leste, which has one of the highest RNIs in the region. Overall, PNG’s population growth is robust compared to developed neighbors but aligns closely with other Melanesian and Pacific island countries facing similar demographic trends.

Data from US Census International Database