Uruguay’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—is notably low compared to its neighbors, reflecting broader demographic trends in the Southern Cone. As of the early 2020s, Uruguay’s RNI hovers close to zero, indicating a very slow population growth, with birth rates only slightly surpassing death rates. This contrasts with Argentina and Brazil, where the RNI remains positive but is gradually declining due to falling fertility rates. Paraguay, in contrast, maintains a higher RNI, driven by a younger population and higher birth rates. Uruguay’s low RNI is largely a result of its aging population, low fertility rates (well below replacement level), and relatively high life expectancy, making its demographic profile more similar to developed countries than to many of its South American neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 0.835 | 3,018,871 |
| 1990 | 0.841 | 3,085,115 |
| 1995 | 0.76 | 3,150,039 |
| 2000 | 0.693 | 3,219,796 |
| 2005 | 0.448 | 3,264,914 |
| 2010 | 0.417 | 3,302,078 |
| 2015 | 0.363 | 3,344,293 |
| 2020 | 0.349 | 3,389,361 |
| 2024 | 0.352 | 3,425,330 |
| 2025 | 0.346 | 3,434,298 |
| 2026 | 0.338 | 3,443,063 |
| 2030 | 0.295 | 3,475,266 |
| 2035 | 0.211 | 3,504,442 |
| 2040 | 0.137 | 3,533,156 |
| 2045 | 0.073 | 3,551,551 |
| 2050 | 0.027 | 3,560,420 |
| 2055 | -0.023 | 3,560,882 |
| 2060 | -0.084 | 3,551,551 |
| 2065 | -0.153 | 3,530,663 |
| 2070 | -0.223 | 3,497,619 |
| 2075 | -0.286 | 3,453,245 |
| 2080 | -0.34 | 3,399,378 |
| 2085 | -0.389 | 3,337,751 |
| 2090 | -0.429 | 3,269,875 |
| 2095 | -0.45 | 3,198,383 |
| 2100 | -0.457 | 3,126,318 |
Data from US Census International Database