The rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—offers insight into Georgia’s population dynamics. As of recent data, Georgia’s RNI is slightly negative or near zero, reflecting low birth rates and relatively high emigration, leading to slow or stagnant population growth. In contrast, neighboring Armenia and Azerbaijan exhibit slightly higher RNIs, with Azerbaijan experiencing modest natural population growth due to higher birth rates, while Armenia’s RNI is also low but not as negative as Georgia’s. To the north, Russia’s RNI is negative, similar to Georgia, due to an aging population and low fertility rates. Turkey, another neighbor, stands out with a positive RNI, supported by higher fertility rates and a younger population structure. Thus, Georgia’s RNI is among the lowest in the region, highlighting demographic challenges such as population aging and outmigration that are less pronounced in some of its neighboring countries.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 0.951 | 5,431,164 |
| 1995 | 0.589 | 5,041,416 |
| 2000 | 0.23 | 4,818,805 |
| 2005 | 0.183 | 4,790,009 |
| 2010 | 0.403 | 4,902,939 |
| 2015 | 0.191 | 4,931,249 |
| 2020 | 0.068 | 4,930,665 |
| 2024 | -0.009 | 4,936,539 |
| 2025 | -0.024 | 4,936,025 |
| 2026 | -0.042 | 4,934,699 |
| 2030 | -0.072 | 4,923,484 |
| 2035 | -0.089 | 4,904,446 |
| 2040 | -0.102 | 4,883,071 |
| 2045 | -0.143 | 4,856,274 |
| 2050 | -0.215 | 4,815,328 |
| 2055 | -0.279 | 4,757,579 |
| 2060 | -0.32 | 4,688,132 |
| 2065 | -0.345 | 4,612,138 |
| 2070 | -0.376 | 4,531,579 |
| 2075 | -0.421 | 4,443,763 |
| 2080 | -0.466 | 4,347,461 |
| 2085 | -0.492 | 4,245,628 |
| 2090 | -0.483 | 4,144,510 |
| 2095 | -0.457 | 4,049,775 |
| 2100 | -0.454 | 3,961,001 |
Data from US Census International Database