The rate of natural increase (RNI) in the Maldives, which measures the difference between birth and death rates excluding migration, has been moderate in recent years. As of the early 2020s, the Maldives' RNI hovers around 1.5% per year, reflecting a declining birth rate and relatively low death rate due to improvements in healthcare and living standards. This RNI is somewhat higher than that of neighboring Sri Lanka, which has an RNI below 1% due to its lower fertility rates and aging population. In contrast, India and Bangladesh, other nearby countries, have RNIs of approximately 1% and 1.1% respectively, both experiencing gradual declines as fertility rates fall. Thus, while the Maldives' RNI is higher than Sri Lanka's and slightly above India and Bangladesh, the overall trend across the region is a slow decline in natural population growth as countries progress through demographic transition.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 3.555 | 177,297 |
| 1990 | 3.547 | 216,606 |
| 1995 | 2.438 | 260,584 |
| 2000 | 1.536 | 299,972 |
| 2005 | 1.205 | 336,255 |
| 2010 | 1.073 | 395,647 |
| 2015 | 1.162 | 392,899 |
| 2020 | 1.171 | 391,104 |
| 2024 | 1.083 | 388,858 |
| 2025 | 1.047 | 388,010 |
| 2026 | 1.006 | 388,256 |
| 2030 | 0.829 | 401,487 |
| 2035 | 0.657 | 416,544 |
| 2040 | 0.554 | 429,282 |
| 2045 | 0.467 | 440,417 |
| 2050 | 0.352 | 449,604 |
| 2055 | 0.204 | 455,949 |
| 2060 | 0.04 | 458,743 |
| 2065 | -0.116 | 457,860 |
| 2070 | -0.255 | 453,607 |
| 2075 | -0.377 | 446,449 |
| 2080 | -0.47 | 437,023 |
| 2085 | -0.518 | 426,274 |
| 2090 | -0.513 | 415,361 |
| 2095 | -0.479 | 405,168 |
| 2100 | -0.459 | 395,827 |
Data from US Census International Database