Montserrat, a small British Overseas Territory in the Caribbean, has experienced a notably low or even negative rate of natural increase (RNI) in recent years, primarily due to its small population size, low birth rates, and the lasting effects of volcanic eruptions in the 1990s that led to significant emigration. In contrast, neighboring countries such as Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Guadeloupe generally report higher RNIs, although these too are modest compared to global averages, reflecting broader regional trends of declining fertility and aging populations. While Montserrat’s RNI often hovers around zero or dips into negative territory, indicating more deaths than births or a stagnant population, its neighbors tend to maintain slightly positive RNIs, supporting slow but steady population growth. This contrast underscores Montserrat’s unique demographic challenges, including ongoing emigration and a limited capacity for natural population recovery compared to its Caribbean counterparts.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 0.682 | 10,268 |
| 2000 | -0.101 | 3,951 |
| 2005 | 0.089 | 4,530 |
| 2010 | 0.39 | 5,118 |
| 2015 | 0.459 | 5,236 |
| 2020 | 0.523 | 5,359 |
| 2024 | 0.585 | 5,468 |
| 2025 | 0.546 | 5,499 |
| 2026 | 0.543 | 5,529 |
| 2030 | 0.39 | 5,634 |
| 2035 | 0.07 | 5,707 |
| 2040 | -0.123 | 5,703 |
| 2045 | -0.283 | 5,645 |
| 2050 | -0.415 | 5,546 |
| 2055 | -0.554 | 5,414 |
| 2060 | -0.724 | 5,245 |
| 2065 | -0.853 | 5,040 |
| 2070 | -1.019 | 4,810 |
| 2075 | -1.073 | 4,567 |
| 2080 | -1.086 | 4,328 |
| 2085 | -1.098 | 4,099 |
| 2090 | -1.108 | 3,882 |
| 2095 | -1.005 | 3,680 |
| 2100 | -0.972 | 3,499 |
Data from US Census International Database