Ukraine’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been negative for several decades, reflecting a demographic decline. As of the early 2020s, Ukraine’s RNI stands at approximately -0.5% per year, meaning deaths significantly outnumber births. This trend is similar to neighboring countries like Bulgaria and Hungary, which also experience negative or near-zero RNI due to aging populations, low fertility rates, and high emigration. In contrast, Poland and Slovakia have slightly higher, though still low or negative, RNIs, while Romania’s RNI hovers near zero but has shown occasional slight positive growth. Meanwhile, Russia, another neighbor, also faces negative RNI, though its rate of decline is somewhat less steep than Ukraine’s. Overall, Ukraine’s demographic situation is emblematic of broader Eastern European trends, but its RNI is among the lowest, highlighting acute population challenges.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 0.053 | 51,622,275 |
| 1995 | -0.584 | 51,247,738 |
| 2000 | -0.755 | 49,013,834 |
| 2005 | -0.757 | 47,002,642 |
| 2010 | -0.439 | 45,768,171 |
| 2015 | -0.376 | 44,428,813 |
| 2020 | -0.456 | 43,903,662 |
| 2024 | -0.503 | 43,080,220 |
| 2025 | -0.516 | 42,849,568 |
| 2026 | -0.525 | 42,615,564 |
| 2030 | -0.52 | 41,679,088 |
| 2035 | -0.479 | 40,597,628 |
| 2040 | -0.484 | 39,580,308 |
| 2045 | -0.528 | 38,538,818 |
| 2050 | -0.586 | 37,422,979 |
| 2055 | -0.63 | 36,240,597 |
| 2060 | -0.65 | 35,041,296 |
| 2065 | -0.668 | 33,848,614 |
| 2070 | -0.689 | 32,663,070 |
| 2075 | -0.701 | 31,488,371 |
| 2080 | -0.676 | 30,359,876 |
| 2085 | -0.618 | 29,333,048 |
| 2090 | -0.554 | 28,430,135 |
| 2095 | -0.528 | 27,620,566 |
| 2100 | -0.55 | 26,833,661 |
Data from US Census International Database