South Africa Rate of Natural Increase

South Africa’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its birth rate and death rate—remains relatively low compared to many of its neighboring countries. As of the early 2020s, South Africa’s RNI hovers around 1% per year, reflecting both a moderate birth rate and a relatively high death rate, partly due to the impact of HIV/AIDS and other health challenges. In contrast, neighboring countries such as Mozambique and Zambia exhibit higher RNIs, often exceeding 2.5%, driven by higher fertility rates and, in some cases, improving health outcomes that reduce mortality. Botswana and Namibia, while also affected by health issues, generally have RNIs somewhat higher than South Africa’s, but still lower than the regional average. South Africa’s slower natural population growth is also influenced by urbanization, greater access to family planning, and socioeconomic factors that lower fertility rates, setting it apart from many of its less urbanized and less economically developed neighbors.

YearRate of Natural IncreasePopulation
19852.4734,254,092
19902.22538,503,255
19951.6442,147,064
20001.20344,913,310
20050.96348,104,426
20100.78751,122,241
20151.07853,661,885
20200.99256,434,963
20240.86758,573,050
20250.83559,090,298
20260.80459,596,713
20300.69361,485,567
20350.58863,582,370
20400.50465,446,929
20450.42167,089,133
20500.3168,434,347
20550.23969,481,713
20600.16670,289,452
20650.10270,861,200
20700.04771,223,825
20750.00671,414,370
2080-0.02671,474,812
2085-0.05171,437,440
2090-0.07871,310,013
2095-0.11371,073,289
2100-0.15470,700,687

Data from US Census International Database