South Africa Rate of Natural Increase

South Africa’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its birth rate and death rate—remains relatively low compared to many of its neighboring countries. As of the early 2020s, South Africa’s RNI hovers around 1% per year, reflecting both a moderate birth rate and a relatively high death rate, partly due to the impact of HIV/AIDS and other health challenges. In contrast, neighboring countries such as Mozambique and Zambia exhibit higher RNIs, often exceeding 2.5%, driven by higher fertility rates and, in some cases, improving health outcomes that reduce mortality. Botswana and Namibia, while also affected by health issues, generally have RNIs somewhat higher than South Africa’s, but still lower than the regional average. South Africa’s slower natural population growth is also influenced by urbanization, greater access to family planning, and socioeconomic factors that lower fertility rates, setting it apart from many of its less urbanized and less economically developed neighbors.

Data from US Census International Database