Portugal’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has been negative for several years, reflecting more deaths than births. As of the early 2020s, Portugal’s RNI is among the lowest in Europe, with a shrinking and aging population. In contrast, neighboring Spain also experiences a negative RNI, though its rate is slightly less negative than Portugal’s. Both countries share similar demographic challenges, such as low fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. However, when compared to another Iberian neighbor, France (across the border from Spain), the contrast is more pronounced: France’s RNI remains positive or close to zero, buoyed by higher birth rates and more robust family policies. Thus, while Portugal and Spain both face population decline from natural causes, Portugal’s situation is somewhat more acute, and both lag behind France in terms of natural population growth.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 0.032 | 10,065,543 |
| 2000 | 0.138 | 10,361,404 |
| 2005 | 0.018 | 10,576,759 |
| 2010 | -0.043 | 10,650,026 |
| 2015 | -0.221 | 10,433,546 |
| 2020 | -0.283 | 10,288,283 |
| 2024 | -0.29 | 10,207,177 |
| 2025 | -0.289 | 10,194,277 |
| 2026 | -0.287 | 10,183,053 |
| 2030 | -0.282 | 10,140,270 |
| 2035 | -0.309 | 10,083,359 |
| 2040 | -0.379 | 10,002,607 |
| 2045 | -0.464 | 9,883,354 |
| 2050 | -0.531 | 9,728,863 |
| 2055 | -0.598 | 9,546,579 |
| 2060 | -0.647 | 9,342,623 |
| 2065 | -0.682 | 9,125,633 |
| 2070 | -0.699 | 8,903,832 |
| 2075 | -0.69 | 8,687,652 |
| 2080 | -0.651 | 8,489,602 |
| 2085 | -0.612 | 8,315,652 |
| 2090 | -0.591 | 8,159,293 |
| 2095 | -0.587 | 8,011,818 |
| 2100 | -0.583 | 7,869,803 |
Data from US Census International Database