Afghanistan Rate of Natural Increase

Afghanistan’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—remains among the highest in South and Central Asia. As of the early 2020s, Afghanistan’s RNI is estimated at around 2.5% per year, reflecting a high birth rate and a relatively high, though declining, death rate. This is notably higher than neighboring Iran and Pakistan, whose RNIs are approximately 1.0% and 1.7% respectively, due to lower fertility rates and improved healthcare. In contrast, Central Asian neighbors such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have RNIs of about 1.3% and 1.8%. Afghanistan’s persistently high RNI is driven by limited access to family planning, early marriage, and cultural preferences for larger families, whereas its neighbors have generally experienced greater declines in fertility rates due to better education, healthcare, and urbanization. This demographic trend poses unique challenges for Afghanistan’s development, straining resources and infrastructure more than in most surrounding countries.

Data from US Census International Database