The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently negative, reflecting a situation where the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, leading to a declining population. As of recent years, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s RNI has hovered around -0.7% per year, one of the lowest in the Balkans. This trend is similar to neighboring countries such as Serbia and Croatia, which also experience negative or near-zero RNI due to low birth rates and aging populations. However, compared to Montenegro and Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s RNI is more negative; Albania, for instance, still maintains a slightly positive RNI, although it too is declining. The common factors across the region include emigration, economic challenges, and demographic aging, but Bosnia and Herzegovina faces these pressures more acutely, resulting in a sharper natural population decrease than some of its neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | -0.362 | 3,546,650 |
| 2000 | 0.239 | 3,805,513 |
| 2005 | 0.005 | 3,893,098 |
| 2010 | -0.025 | 3,884,835 |
| 2015 | -0.1 | 3,865,491 |
| 2020 | -0.166 | 3,832,751 |
| 2024 | -0.207 | 3,798,671 |
| 2025 | -0.223 | 3,789,077 |
| 2026 | -0.241 | 3,778,869 |
| 2030 | -0.332 | 3,730,292 |
| 2035 | -0.468 | 3,649,137 |
| 2040 | -0.587 | 3,546,651 |
| 2045 | -0.67 | 3,429,208 |
| 2050 | -0.729 | 3,303,663 |
| 2055 | -0.796 | 3,172,527 |
| 2060 | -0.85 | 3,037,135 |
| 2065 | -0.891 | 2,900,289 |
| 2070 | -0.915 | 2,764,748 |
| 2075 | -0.912 | 2,633,710 |
| 2080 | -0.89 | 2,510,134 |
| 2085 | -0.843 | 2,396,206 |
| 2090 | -0.78 | 2,293,506 |
| 2095 | -0.711 | 2,202,315 |
| 2100 | -0.662 | 2,120,825 |
Data from US Census International Database