Rwanda’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between the crude birth rate and crude death rate—remains relatively high, reflecting its youthful population and ongoing demographic transition. As of the early 2020s, Rwanda’s RNI hovers around 2.4% per year, indicating robust population growth driven by a birth rate that significantly exceeds the death rate. Compared to its neighbors, Rwanda’s RNI is somewhat lower than that of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which exceeds 3%, but higher than Burundi and Uganda, both of which have RNIs close to 2.7%. Tanzania, to the east, has an RNI similar to Rwanda’s, around 2.6%. While all these countries experience high natural increase rates typical of Sub-Saharan Africa, Rwanda’s slightly lower RNI reflects successful health interventions and a declining fertility rate, though it still faces challenges related to rapid population growth and resource management.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 3.203 | 5,137,743 |
| 1985 | 3.383 | 6,025,284 |
| 1990 | 3.003 | 7,140,915 |
| 1995 | 2.276 | 5,384,523 |
| 2000 | 2.61 | 8,047,103 |
| 2005 | 2.929 | 8,842,457 |
| 2010 | 2.898 | 9,923,423 |
| 2015 | 2.577 | 11,375,693 |
| 2020 | 2.181 | 12,709,485 |
| 2024 | 1.931 | 13,623,302 |
| 2025 | 1.871 | 13,848,766 |
| 2026 | 1.828 | 14,078,098 |
| 2030 | 1.657 | 14,972,757 |
| 2035 | 1.531 | 16,065,002 |
| 2040 | 1.403 | 17,142,030 |
| 2045 | 1.26 | 18,177,389 |
| 2050 | 1.096 | 19,133,170 |
| 2055 | 0.944 | 19,985,031 |
| 2060 | 0.805 | 20,728,494 |
| 2065 | 0.684 | 21,366,268 |
| 2070 | 0.573 | 21,901,286 |
| 2075 | 0.462 | 22,328,906 |
| 2080 | 0.348 | 22,639,761 |
| 2085 | 0.231 | 22,824,274 |
| 2090 | 0.115 | 22,876,818 |
| 2095 | 0.004 | 22,799,107 |
| 2100 | -0.097 | 22,600,440 |
Data from US Census International Database