Albania’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—has declined significantly over recent decades, reflecting broader demographic trends in Southeastern Europe. As of the early 2020s, Albania’s RNI is close to zero or slightly negative, indicating a stagnant or shrinking natural population growth. This trend is similar to neighboring countries such as Greece and Serbia, both of which also exhibit negative RNIs due to low birth rates and aging populations. In contrast, Kosovo stands out in the region with a higher, though still declining, RNI, driven by a relatively younger population and higher fertility rates. North Macedonia and Montenegro, like Albania, experience low or near-zero RNIs, mirroring the demographic challenges of declining fertility and increasing emigration. Overall, Albania’s demographic profile is closely aligned with its Balkan neighbors, facing the shared challenge of population stagnation or decline.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 1.971 | 3,244,925 |
| 1995 | 1.712 | 3,158,153 |
| 2000 | 1.104 | 3,158,351 |
| 2005 | 0.734 | 3,024,532 |
| 2010 | 0.637 | 2,989,272 |
| 2015 | 0.644 | 3,036,304 |
| 2020 | 0.573 | 3,080,930 |
| 2024 | 0.485 | 3,107,100 |
| 2025 | 0.449 | 3,111,630 |
| 2026 | 0.411 | 3,115,029 |
| 2030 | 0.245 | 3,116,046 |
| 2035 | 0.047 | 3,088,040 |
| 2040 | -0.082 | 3,034,478 |
| 2045 | -0.139 | 2,967,267 |
| 2050 | -0.174 | 2,894,358 |
| 2055 | -0.254 | 2,816,714 |
| 2060 | -0.373 | 2,731,175 |
| 2065 | -0.522 | 2,633,919 |
| 2070 | -0.682 | 2,523,893 |
| 2075 | -0.834 | 2,402,944 |
| 2080 | -0.961 | 2,275,162 |
| 2085 | -1.042 | 2,146,432 |
| 2090 | -1.038 | 2,024,839 |
| 2095 | -0.948 | 1,918,935 |
| 2100 | -0.817 | 1,833,559 |
Data from US Census International Database