The rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—remains a key driver of Turkmenistan’s population growth. As of recent estimates, Turkmenistan’s RNI stands at approximately 1.3% per year, reflecting a moderate but steady population increase. This rate is somewhat higher than that of neighboring Iran, where declining fertility and improved healthcare have reduced RNI to around 1.0%. In contrast, Turkmenistan’s RNI is lower than that of Afghanistan, which has one of the highest rates in the region at about 2.2%, driven by high birth rates and a younger population. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have RNIs of around 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively, placing Turkmenistan in the middle range among its Central Asian neighbors. These differences reflect varying socioeconomic conditions, fertility rates, and public health outcomes across the region.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 2.542 | 3,658,462 |
| 1995 | 2.102 | 4,078,729 |
| 2000 | 1.578 | 4,385,490 |
| 2005 | 1.38 | 4,664,154 |
| 2010 | 1.329 | 4,940,152 |
| 2015 | 1.315 | 5,228,010 |
| 2020 | 1.219 | 5,522,684 |
| 2024 | 1.082 | 5,744,151 |
| 2025 | 1.044 | 5,795,896 |
| 2026 | 1.006 | 5,845,952 |
| 2030 | 0.854 | 6,027,837 |
| 2035 | 0.704 | 6,216,739 |
| 2040 | 0.611 | 6,374,645 |
| 2045 | 0.539 | 6,511,718 |
| 2050 | 0.456 | 6,627,470 |
| 2055 | 0.338 | 6,712,130 |
| 2060 | 0.218 | 6,757,599 |
| 2065 | 0.109 | 6,764,453 |
| 2070 | 0.018 | 6,737,353 |
| 2075 | -0.056 | 6,682,234 |
| 2080 | -0.114 | 6,605,049 |
| 2085 | -0.155 | 6,512,170 |
| 2090 | -0.181 | 6,409,465 |
| 2095 | -0.203 | 6,300,470 |
| 2100 | -0.237 | 6,183,988 |
Data from US Census International Database