Tajikistan Rate of Natural Increase

Tajikistan’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth and death rates—remains one of the highest in Central Asia, reflecting its youthful population and relatively high fertility rates. As of recent estimates, Tajikistan’s RNI is around 2.0% per year, which is significantly higher than neighboring countries such as Uzbekistan (approximately 1.4%), Kyrgyzstan (about 1.3%), and Kazakhstan (under 1%). Afghanistan, to the south, has a comparable or slightly higher RNI, but faces distinct demographic pressures due to conflict and migration. In contrast, countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have seen declining fertility rates and slower population growth, influenced by urbanization and economic changes. Tajikistan’s persistently high RNI is driven by traditional family structures, limited access to family planning in rural areas, and a lower median age, setting it apart from its neighbors who are experiencing more rapid demographic transitions.

Data from US Census International Database