The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Armenia, which measures the difference between birth rates and death rates, has been relatively low in recent years, reflecting broader demographic trends in the region. As of the early 2020s, Armenia’s RNI hovers close to zero or is slightly negative, indicating that the number of births is just about equal to, or slightly less than, the number of deaths. This is similar to neighboring Georgia, which also experiences a low or negative RNI, largely due to low fertility rates and emigration. In contrast, Azerbaijan, another neighbor, maintains a positive RNI, with higher birth rates and a younger population structure. Meanwhile, Turkey, Armenia’s western neighbor, has a higher RNI than Armenia, though it too has seen a gradual decline as fertility rates drop. These differences highlight how Armenia and Georgia are experiencing stagnating or declining natural population growth, while Azerbaijan and Turkey still see modest increases, albeit at a slowing pace.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 1.64 | 3,529,365 |
| 1995 | 0.938 | 3,130,256 |
| 2000 | 0.636 | 3,100,044 |
| 2005 | 0.501 | 3,084,082 |
| 2010 | 0.522 | 3,071,974 |
| 2015 | 0.426 | 3,056,294 |
| 2020 | 0.239 | 3,021,483 |
| 2024 | 0.096 | 2,976,765 |
| 2025 | 0.064 | 2,963,837 |
| 2026 | 0.031 | 2,950,306 |
| 2030 | -0.066 | 2,892,342 |
| 2035 | -0.188 | 2,813,532 |
| 2040 | -0.324 | 2,726,880 |
| 2045 | -0.469 | 2,629,539 |
| 2050 | -0.6 | 2,521,147 |
| 2055 | -0.712 | 2,405,068 |
| 2060 | -0.815 | 2,284,720 |
| 2065 | -0.937 | 2,160,483 |
| 2070 | -1.085 | 2,030,497 |
| 2075 | -1.235 | 1,894,256 |
| 2080 | -1.339 | 1,756,008 |
| 2085 | -1.363 | 1,622,750 |
| 2090 | -1.316 | 1,500,741 |
| 2095 | -1.261 | 1,392,028 |
| 2100 | -1.253 | 1,293,680 |
Data from US Census International Database