Tonga Rate of Natural Increase

Tonga’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been moderate compared to its Pacific neighbors. As of recent estimates, Tonga’s RNI is around 1.1% per year, reflecting a birth rate of approximately 20 per 1,000 population and a death rate near 9 per 1,000. This rate is somewhat lower than that of Samoa, which has an RNI closer to 1.4%, but higher than Fiji, whose RNI has declined to about 0.7% due to lower birth rates and higher emigration. While all three countries experience significant emigration that affects total population growth, Tonga’s natural increase remains positive, though it is gradually slowing as fertility rates decline in line with broader global trends. In contrast, smaller island nations like Niue and Tokelau have negative or near-zero RNIs, largely due to very low birth rates and high rates of out-migration. Thus, while Tonga’s natural increase is still contributing to population growth, it is doing so at a slower pace than some of its neighbors, reflecting demographic transitions occurring throughout the Pacific region.

Data from US Census International Database