Bahrain’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its crude birth rate and crude death rate—has been moderate compared to its Gulf neighbors. As of recent years, Bahrain’s RNI hovers around 1.2% per year, reflecting a relatively low birth rate and a declining death rate due to improved healthcare. In contrast, neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar have slightly higher RNIs, often exceeding 1.5%, driven by higher fertility rates and similarly low mortality rates. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait exhibit even lower RNIs, largely due to their significant expatriate populations and lower fertility among citizens. Overall, while Bahrain’s RNI is positive and contributes to population growth, it is not as high as in some neighboring Gulf states, highlighting subtle demographic differences within the region.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 2.471 | 423,224 |
| 1990 | 2.268 | 505,672 |
| 1995 | 2.09 | 582,068 |
| 2000 | 1.891 | 654,862 |
| 2005 | 1.433 | 915,968 |
| 2010 | 1.228 | 1,180,087 |
| 2015 | 1.094 | 1,346,509 |
| 2020 | 0.981 | 1,504,665 |
| 2024 | 0.936 | 1,566,888 |
| 2025 | 0.922 | 1,579,544 |
| 2026 | 0.911 | 1,591,850 |
| 2030 | 0.856 | 1,638,583 |
| 2035 | 0.8 | 1,700,439 |
| 2040 | 0.747 | 1,758,250 |
| 2045 | 0.662 | 1,805,489 |
| 2050 | 0.571 | 1,847,256 |
| 2055 | 0.478 | 1,883,505 |
| 2060 | 0.395 | 1,912,262 |
| 2065 | 0.319 | 1,933,987 |
| 2070 | 0.247 | 1,948,892 |
| 2075 | 0.173 | 1,956,843 |
| 2080 | 0.102 | 1,957,732 |
| 2085 | 0.041 | 1,952,099 |
| 2090 | -0.002 | 1,941,305 |
| 2095 | -0.022 | 1,927,435 |
| 2100 | -0.016 | 1,912,964 |
Data from US Census International Database