The rate of natural increase (RNI) in Dominica, which represents the difference between the crude birth rate and crude death rate, is relatively low compared to many of its Caribbean neighbors. As of recent estimates, Dominica’s RNI hovers close to zero or is slightly negative, reflecting low birth rates and an aging population, as well as significant emigration. In contrast, neighboring countries such as Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines generally have slightly higher RNIs, though these too are modest compared to global averages, due to similar demographic trends of declining fertility and outward migration. Meanwhile, countries like Haiti, though geographically nearby, exhibit a much higher RNI, driven by higher birth rates and a younger population structure. This comparison highlights Dominica’s demographic challenges, including population stagnation and potential decline, which differ from the more robust natural population growth seen in some of its regional counterparts.
Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
---|---|---|
1985 | 1.708 | 73,109 |
1990 | 1.641 | 70,010 |
1995 | 1.321 | 71,422 |
2000 | 0.864 | 70,872 |
2005 | 0.787 | 72,398 |
2010 | 0.754 | 73,216 |
2015 | 0.725 | 73,968 |
2020 | 0.625 | 74,522 |
2024 | 0.522 | 74,661 |
2025 | 0.487 | 74,642 |
2026 | 0.458 | 74,599 |
2030 | 0.315 | 74,169 |
2035 | 0.145 | 73,032 |
2040 | 0.008 | 71,328 |
2045 | -0.13 | 69,142 |
2050 | -0.301 | 66,443 |
2055 | -0.48 | 63,679 |
2060 | -0.592 | 61,488 |
2065 | -0.628 | 59,633 |
2070 | -0.634 | 57,782 |
2075 | -0.64 | 55,977 |
2080 | -0.664 | 54,181 |
2085 | -0.654 | 52,416 |
2090 | -0.594 | 50,806 |
2095 | -0.504 | 49,432 |
2100 | -0.416 | 48,318 |
Data from US Census International Database