Iran Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—has been steadily declining in Iran over the past few decades. As of the early 2020s, Iran’s RNI hovers around 0.8% per year, reflecting a significant drop from the high rates of the 1980s, due to successful family planning policies and increased urbanization. In comparison, neighboring Afghanistan maintains a much higher RNI, exceeding 2%, driven by higher fertility rates and a younger population. Conversely, Turkey’s RNI is similar to Iran’s, at around 0.7%, reflecting parallel trends of modernization and declining fertility. Iraq’s RNI, however, remains higher than Iran’s, at about 2%, due to higher birth rates despite years of conflict. Meanwhile, countries like Armenia and Azerbaijan to the northwest have even lower RNIs, with Armenia experiencing near-zero or negative natural increase, largely due to low birth rates and emigration. Overall, Iran’s RNI is moderate in the region, lower than some neighbors but higher than others, illustrating the diverse demographic transitions occurring across the Middle East and Central Asia.

Data from US Census International Database