Madagascar’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its birth rate and death rate—remains relatively high compared to many of its neighboring countries. As of recent estimates, Madagascar’s RNI is around 2.5% per year, reflecting a high birth rate and a gradually declining death rate due to improvements in healthcare. In contrast, neighboring Mozambique exhibits a similar RNI of about 2.5%, while Tanzania’s RNI is slightly lower, at approximately 2.3%. Meanwhile, island neighbor Comoros has a lower RNI, closer to 2.0%, and Mauritius, another island nation in the region, has an RNI below 1%, reflecting its lower fertility and higher development indicators. Thus, while Madagascar’s population is growing rapidly, its rate of natural increase is comparable to some mainland neighbors but significantly higher than more developed island nations nearby.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 2.614 | 7,603,790 |
| 1980 | 2.772 | 8,684,399 |
| 1985 | 2.921 | 10,014,533 |
| 1990 | 3.007 | 11,616,589 |
| 1995 | 3.027 | 13,512,215 |
| 2000 | 2.852 | 15,684,814 |
| 2005 | 2.845 | 18,094,500 |
| 2010 | 2.741 | 20,808,128 |
| 2015 | 2.577 | 23,772,723 |
| 2020 | 2.358 | 26,898,646 |
| 2024 | 2.175 | 29,452,714 |
| 2025 | 2.127 | 30,093,073 |
| 2026 | 2.083 | 30,733,233 |
| 2030 | 1.898 | 33,281,950 |
| 2035 | 1.701 | 36,418,409 |
| 2040 | 1.53 | 39,485,505 |
| 2045 | 1.382 | 42,471,930 |
| 2050 | 1.241 | 45,355,015 |
| 2055 | 1.134 | 48,134,693 |
| 2060 | 1.016 | 50,795,335 |
| 2065 | 0.893 | 53,277,587 |
| 2070 | 0.77 | 55,538,234 |
| 2075 | 0.652 | 57,547,059 |
| 2080 | 0.538 | 59,283,141 |
| 2085 | 0.428 | 60,731,469 |
| 2090 | 0.32 | 61,878,118 |
| 2095 | 0.213 | 62,708,113 |
| 2100 | 0.108 | 63,211,027 |
Data from US Census International Database