Guatemala’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between its birth rate and death rate, expressed as a percentage—is among the highest in Central America. As of recent estimates, Guatemala’s RNI hovers around 1.7% to 2% per year, reflecting a youthful population and relatively high fertility rates. In comparison, neighboring countries such as Honduras and El Salvador have lower RNIs, with Honduras at approximately 1.5% and El Salvador at around 0.6%. Mexico, to the north, has an even lower RNI, close to 0.7%, due to declining fertility rates and an aging population. This contrast highlights Guatemala’s demographic distinctiveness in the region, as it continues to experience rapid population growth driven by higher birth rates and a lower median age, while its neighbors are gradually transitioning toward slower population growth and, in some cases, demographic stabilization.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 3.124 | 7,513,581 |
| 1990 | 3.22 | 8,627,640 |
| 1995 | 3.114 | 9,929,627 |
| 2000 | 2.754 | 11,285,795 |
| 2005 | 2.48 | 12,701,639 |
| 2010 | 2.33 | 14,211,795 |
| 2015 | 2.136 | 15,720,815 |
| 2020 | 1.826 | 17,140,193 |
| 2024 | 1.655 | 18,255,216 |
| 2025 | 1.61 | 18,525,963 |
| 2026 | 1.577 | 18,793,889 |
| 2030 | 1.438 | 19,842,090 |
| 2035 | 1.298 | 21,096,354 |
| 2040 | 1.173 | 22,290,211 |
| 2045 | 1.047 | 23,412,438 |
| 2050 | 0.92 | 24,442,800 |
| 2055 | 0.785 | 25,357,316 |
| 2060 | 0.657 | 26,138,559 |
| 2065 | 0.537 | 26,780,914 |
| 2070 | 0.42 | 27,279,690 |
| 2075 | 0.303 | 27,628,088 |
| 2080 | 0.187 | 27,820,064 |
| 2085 | 0.077 | 27,856,214 |
| 2090 | -0.022 | 27,746,541 |
| 2095 | -0.11 | 27,507,577 |
| 2100 | -0.19 | 27,155,589 |
Data from US Census International Database