Latvia Rate of Natural Increase

Latvia’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—has been consistently negative in recent years, reflecting a declining population due to low birth rates and high death rates. As of the early 2020s, Latvia’s RNI hovers around -0.9% per year, one of the lowest in the European Union. This trend is similar to its Baltic neighbors, Lithuania and Estonia, both of which also face negative RNIs, though Latvia’s decline is somewhat steeper than Estonia’s and comparable to Lithuania’s. In contrast, neighboring Russia and Belarus also experience negative or near-zero RNIs, though Russia’s larger population and slightly higher birth rates sometimes moderate its decline. Overall, the entire region is characterized by aging populations and low fertility, but Latvia stands out for the persistence and depth of its natural decrease, exacerbated by significant emigration in recent decades.

Data from US Census International Database