Burundi’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—is among the highest in the world, standing at approximately 3.1% per year as of recent estimates. This high RNI is driven by a persistently high birth rate and a gradually declining, but still significant, death rate. Compared to its neighbors, Burundi’s RNI is similar to that of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (around 3.2%) and Tanzania (about 2.8%), but notably higher than Rwanda (2.3%) and Uganda (3.0%). While all these countries experience youthful populations and high fertility rates, Rwanda’s more aggressive family planning policies and improved health infrastructure have contributed to a slightly lower RNI. In contrast, Burundi’s limited access to reproductive health services and ongoing socio-economic challenges have kept its natural increase among the highest in the region, intensifying pressures on land, resources, and social services.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 2.832 | 4,287,693 |
| 1985 | 3.034 | 4,848,529 |
| 1990 | 3.015 | 5,375,305 |
| 1995 | 2.934 | 5,812,059 |
| 2000 | 3.157 | 6,281,743 |
| 2005 | 3.327 | 7,439,109 |
| 2010 | 3.359 | 9,139,612 |
| 2015 | 3.029 | 10,576,586 |
| 2020 | 2.959 | 11,845,890 |
| 2024 | 2.887 | 13,590,102 |
| 2025 | 2.868 | 13,976,678 |
| 2026 | 2.85 | 14,371,891 |
| 2030 | 2.765 | 16,038,534 |
| 2035 | 2.608 | 18,294,904 |
| 2040 | 2.406 | 20,687,154 |
| 2045 | 2.18 | 23,149,039 |
| 2050 | 1.947 | 25,611,635 |
| 2055 | 1.868 | 28,123,742 |
| 2060 | 1.768 | 30,750,126 |
| 2065 | 1.636 | 33,433,498 |
| 2070 | 1.478 | 36,092,073 |
| 2075 | 1.309 | 38,645,126 |
| 2080 | 1.148 | 41,040,137 |
| 2085 | 0.997 | 43,248,329 |
| 2090 | 0.85 | 45,242,999 |
| 2095 | 0.696 | 46,977,581 |
| 2100 | 0.531 | 48,391,757 |
Data from US Census International Database