2059 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2059, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its long-term decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is expected to maintain the highest RNI among all continents, driven by persistently high fertility rates in sub-Saharan countries such as Niger, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where RNIs could remain above 2% per year. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will likely be much lower, with populous nations like China and India experiencing near-zero or even negative RNIs due to aging populations and declining fertility. Europe’s RNI is projected to be negative in most countries, including Germany, Italy, and Russia, as deaths outpace births, leading to natural population decrease unless offset by immigration. Latin America and the Caribbean will see RNIs continue to fall, with countries like Brazil and Mexico approaching zero growth. Meanwhile, North America and Oceania will have modest RNIs, with the United States and Australia relying more on migration than natural increase for population growth. These contrasts highlight the demographic divergence: while some African nations will still grapple with rapid population growth, much of the rest of the world will face stagnation or decline, underscoring the need for regionally tailored policies and planning.

Data from US Census International Database