2058 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2058, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will continue to show significant regional disparities. Worldwide, the RNI is projected to decline further from its early 21st-century levels, with many countries in Europe and East Asia, such as Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, experiencing negative or near-zero RNI due to persistently low birth rates and aging populations. In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa will maintain the highest RNI, with countries like Niger, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo exhibiting robust population growth driven by high fertility rates and improving, though still elevated, mortality rates. South Asia, including India and Pakistan, will see a moderate RNI, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions with declining fertility but still youthful populations. Latin America and Southeast Asia will experience low to moderate RNI, as most countries in these regions continue to see declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. Thus, while Africa will drive much of the world’s natural population growth by 2058, many developed and some emerging economies will face population stagnation or decline, accentuating global demographic imbalances.

Data from US Census International Database