2057 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2057, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely continue its decades-long decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Most projections suggest that the world’s RNI will hover close to zero or even become negative, as many countries experience aging populations and lower fertility rates. Africa will remain the region with the highest RNI, driven by persistently high birth rates in countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, though even here the rate is expected to decline from its current levels. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and China, will likely see negative RNIs, with deaths outnumbering births due to very low fertility and advanced population aging. Latin America and South Asia, including countries like Brazil and India, will have RNIs close to or slightly above zero, as fertility rates continue to fall and life expectancy rises. This divergence means that while some African countries will still experience substantial natural population growth, many nations in Europe and East Asia will face shrinking populations, reshaping the world’s demographic landscape by 2057.

Data from US Census International Database