2056 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2056, the world’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely continue its decades-long decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Global RNI is projected to be well below 1% per year, a sharp contrast to the mid-20th century when it peaked above 2%. Africa will remain the region with the highest RNI, with countries such as Niger and Nigeria maintaining annual rates above 2%, driven by high fertility and relatively youthful populations. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and China, will experience negative or near-zero RNI due to persistent low fertility and aging populations. South Asia and parts of the Middle East may see moderate RNI, but these rates will also be declining as fertility drops and life expectancy rises. Latin America will have a low but still positive RNI, while North America’s natural increase will be minimal, with population growth increasingly dependent on migration. These contrasts highlight a world where population growth is concentrated in a few regions, while many countries face the challenges of population decline and aging.

Data from US Census International Database