2055 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2055, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its long-term decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. The world average RNI is expected to fall below 0.7% per year, down from around 1% in 2020. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, with many Sub-Saharan countries such as Niger and Nigeria maintaining rates above 2%, driven by high fertility and relatively young populations. Conversely, Europe will experience negative or near-zero RNI, as countries like Italy, Germany, and Russia face persistent low birth rates and aging populations, leading to natural population decrease. Asia will show considerable variation: South Asian countries like Pakistan and India will see moderate RNI, while East Asian nations such as China, Japan, and South Korea will have very low or negative rates due to sustained low fertility. Latin America’s RNI will continue to decline, with countries like Brazil and Mexico approaching replacement-level fertility. In contrast, North America and Oceania will see modest RNI, with the U.S. and Australia relying increasingly on immigration to offset low natural growth. These trends highlight widening demographic contrasts, with some regions still experiencing rapid population growth while others confront population stagnation or decline.

Data from US Census International Database