2054 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2054, the world’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will have continued its long-term decline, reflecting global demographic transitions. The global RNI is projected to be below 0.5% per year, a significant drop from earlier decades. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, with many countries in sub-Saharan Africa still experiencing rates above 2%, driven by high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will have fallen sharply, with countries like India and China approaching or even dipping below replacement-level fertility, resulting in RNIs close to zero or negative. Europe will continue to experience negative RNI in most countries, with deaths outnumbering births, leading to population decline unless offset by immigration. Latin America and the Caribbean will see RNIs close to zero, reflecting aging populations and lower fertility. Meanwhile, North America and Oceania will have modestly positive RNIs, but these will be much lower than in previous decades, with much of their population growth stemming from immigration rather than natural increase. The contrast between high-RNI countries such as Nigeria or the Democratic Republic of Congo and low- or negative-RNI countries like Japan, Germany, or Italy will underscore the demographic divergence shaping global population trends in 2054.

Data from US Census International Database