2053 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2053, the world’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its long-term decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Globally, the RNI is expected to fall below 0.5% per year, compared to about 0.8% in 2023, as fertility rates drop and populations age. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, with many countries in sub-Saharan Africa still experiencing rates above 2%, driven by high birth rates and improving, but still relatively high, mortality rates. In contrast, Europe and East Asia will see negative or near-zero RNI, as deaths outpace births due to very low fertility and aging populations—countries like Japan, Italy, and Germany will continue to shrink naturally. South Asia and Latin America will experience moderate RNIs, with India’s RNI expected to fall below 0.5% and Brazil’s approaching zero. The Middle East and parts of Southeast Asia will maintain positive, but declining, RNIs. This divergence means that while some countries, especially in Africa and parts of Asia, will still see significant natural population growth, many developed nations will rely increasingly on immigration to offset natural population decline.

Data from US Census International Database