2052 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2052, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its decades-long decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is expected to maintain the highest RNI among continents, with Sub-Saharan Africa leading due to persistently high fertility rates and a youthful population, although even here the RNI will likely be lower than in previous decades. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will continue to fall sharply, especially in East and Southeast Asia, where countries like China, Japan, and South Korea are experiencing aging populations and, in some cases, natural population decrease (negative RNI). Latin America and the Caribbean will see moderate RNI, with countries like Brazil and Mexico nearing or dropping below replacement-level fertility. Europe’s RNI will remain negative or close to zero, as low birth rates and aging populations dominate, particularly in Eastern and Southern Europe. North America’s RNI will be modest, with the United States and Canada relying more on immigration than natural increase for population growth. In summary, by 2052, the world’s population growth will be driven almost exclusively by Africa, while most other regions either stagnate or decline, highlighting stark contrasts between youthful, high-fertility countries such as Nigeria and Niger, and aging, low-fertility nations like Germany, Italy, and Japan.

Data from US Census International Database