2051 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2051, the world’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will continue to show marked regional contrasts. Globally, the RNI is projected to decline further from its early 21st-century levels, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Africa is expected to maintain the highest RNI, with many countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, experiencing annual natural increases above 2%, driven by high fertility rates and improving but still relatively high mortality rates. In contrast, Europe’s RNI will remain negative or near zero, as low birth rates and aging populations persist, leading to natural population decline in many countries, especially in Eastern and Southern Europe. Asia’s RNI will be mixed: South and Southeast Asia will see moderate natural increases, while East Asia (notably China, Japan, and South Korea) will likely experience negative RNI due to very low fertility and rapidly aging populations. Latin America’s RNI will continue to fall, with some countries approaching zero natural growth, while North America and Oceania will see modest positive RNIs, sustained mainly by immigration rather than high birth rates. Country-level differences will be stark: Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, will have among the world’s highest RNIs, while countries like Japan, Italy, and Russia will have negative RNIs, highlighting a global demographic divide between youthful, growing populations and aging, shrinking ones.

Data from US Census International Database