2050 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2050, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its long-term decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. While the global RNI is expected to fall below 0.5% per year, this average masks significant regional variation. Africa, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa, will maintain the highest RNI, with many countries such as Niger and Nigeria projected to have RNIs above 2% due to persistently high fertility rates and declining mortality. In contrast, regions like Europe and East Asia (including countries such as Germany, Italy, Japan, and China) will experience negative or near-zero RNI, as low birth rates and aging populations lead to natural population decline. Latin America and South Asia will see moderate RNIs, but these are expected to decrease steadily as fertility rates continue to drop. Thus, while some countries and regions will still grow naturally, much of the world will see stagnating or shrinking populations, highlighting stark contrasts in demographic trajectories across continents.

Data from US Census International Database