2049 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2049, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will continue its long-term decline, reflecting demographic transitions in many parts of the world. Africa is projected to maintain the highest RNI, with many countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, still experiencing youthful populations and high fertility rates, resulting in RNIs above 2% per year in nations such as Niger and Nigeria. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will have dropped significantly, with countries like India and Indonesia approaching replacement-level fertility, and East Asian nations such as China, Japan, and South Korea facing negative RNIs due to persistent low birth rates and aging populations. Europe will continue to see negative or near-zero RNIs, with countries like Italy, Germany, and Russia experiencing natural population decline unless offset by immigration. Latin America and the Caribbean will have moderate but declining RNIs, with many countries nearing demographic stability. North America’s RNI will remain low, with the United States and Canada relying on immigration for much of their population growth. Thus, while Africa will drive most of the world’s natural population increase by 2049, other regions will experience stagnation or decline, highlighting stark contrasts in demographic trends across continents and countries.

Data from US Census International Database